Published October 12, 2026 in Market Update

Sales jumped in one part of Manassas even as prices slipped

By Johnny Quilenderino

Real estate, manassas

I want to be straight with you about what these numbers say and what they do not say. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 480 homes sold across ZIPs 20109, 20110, 20111 and 20112 in the three months ending August 31, 2026. That is up only 1.1% from the same period in 2025. But that combined number hides a wide gap between ZIP codes. One part of Manassas had sales surge 20.3% while its median price dropped 3.4%. Another part saw sales fall 20.2%. These are not the same market.

A word on rates before we get into the ZIP-by-ZIP picture. CNBC reported the average contract rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage with a conforming loan balance hit 7.49% the week of October 7, 2026. That is real pressure on buyers. Realtor.com reported that nationally, mortgage rates climbed above 7% for the first time since January 2025, and price cuts hit 20.8% of listings in September 2026, the highest share since October 2022. What you see in Manassas is buyers still moving, but being more selective about price.

ZIP 20110: more buyers, softer price

This is the ZIP that drives the headline. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 160 homes sold in ZIP 20110 in the three months ending August 31, 2026. That is up 20.3% from a year before. At the same time, the median sale price fell 3.4% to $528,804. More closings, lower midpoint. What that tells me: buyers came back to this ZIP in volume, but they were not willing to pay last year's prices to do it. Sellers who priced to the market moved. Those who held to 2025 numbers likely sat.

The sale-to-list ratio in ZIP 20110 was 101%, up 1.2 points from a year ago, according to the Real Estate Data Aggregator. And 41.3% of homes sold above list price, up 9.7 points year over year. So the median price fell, but well-priced homes still drew competition. That is the part sellers need to understand. A lower median does not mean buyers will accept anything. It means they will pay full price, or more, for the right home at the right number.

ZIP 20109: prices up, but fewer quick sales

ZIP 20109 tells a different story. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 132 homes sold there in the three months ending August 31, 2026, up 10.9% from a year before. The median sale price rose 6% to $499,950. Inventory climbed too: homes for sale were up 31.6% year over year to 75 active listings. More supply, higher price, more sales. But the share of homes going under contract within two weeks dropped 9.7 points to 41.2%. Buyers are still buying, just taking a little longer to decide.

ZIP 20111: fewer listings, fewer sales, but fast when priced right

ZIP 20111 had the sharpest drop in volume. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 91 homes sold in the three months ending August 31, 2026, down 20.2% from a year before. New listings fell 14.3% to 102. Pending sales dropped 27.7%. This ZIP simply had less activity on both sides. But here is the other side of that: 52.3% of homes that did list went under contract within two weeks, up 8.6 points year over year. The homes that hit the market correctly sold fast. The ones that did not are in that 27.7% pending drop.

ZIP 20112: higher price point, more inventory, slower pace

ZIP 20112 covers the southern and more rural part of the Prince William County area near Manassas. The Real Estate Data Aggregator put the median sale price at $762,000 in the three months ending August 31, 2026, up 0.9% from a year before. That is the highest median of the four ZIPs. But homes for sale rose 21.5% to 79 active listings, and months of supply climbed 0.7 months to 2.5. Homes sold fell 11%. The sale-to-list ratio slipped to 99.8%, and the share selling above list dropped 2.9 points to 32%. At this price point, buyers have more options and they know it.

How the four ZIPs compare

What the national picture adds

The Federal Housing Finance Agency reported U.S. house prices rose 2.6% year over year through July 2026. Manassas is not one market reacting the same way. ZIP 20109 beat that national figure with a 6% price gain. ZIP 20110 went the other direction, down 3.4%, even as sales surged. The national number is a starting point, not a local answer.

Rates matter here too. CNBC reported the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.49% the week of October 7, 2026. That raises the monthly payment on every price point in these ZIPs. Sellers in ZIP 20112, where the median is $762,000, feel that more than sellers in ZIP 20109 at $499,950. Higher rates shrink the buyer pool at the top of the range faster than at the middle.

What sellers should take from this

Buyer traffic is up across most of this area. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 479 pending sales across all four ZIPs in the three months ending August 31, 2026, up 2.6% from a year before. New listings rose 8.8% to 555. More supply came in, and most of it moved. That is not a weak market. But it is a market where price discipline matters. ZIP 20110 shows you can have 20.3% more closings and still see the median fall 3.4%. Buyers are active and they are also informed.

One more thing for sellers to know. Nationally, Realtor.com reported that 20.8% of listings took a price cut in September 2026, the highest share since October 2022. That is not a Manassas-specific number, but it tells you what buyers elsewhere are doing: waiting for the cut. Price it right from day one and you avoid that wait. Price it high and you may be the one cutting.